From the Field: Chicago | Uncertainty, Retention, and Renter Strain in 2025

As part of LeaseLock’s From the Field series, I recently spent a few days in Chicago meeting with some of the apartment industry’s brightest minds—ranging from institutional capital investors to leaders at major owner/operator firms. These candid, in-person conversations help ground our national perspective in real-world context. And in Chicago, one theme kept bubbling to the surface: uncertainty.

Here are five takeaways that are shaping my current view of the rental housing landscape—both in Chicago and beyond.

1. Economic Confusion Is the Norm, Not the Exception

There’s little consensus among industry leaders about where the economy is headed in the near term. But even amid that uncertainty, most are moving forward with the assumption that job creation and household formation will cool in the back half of 2025. If that proves true, we may see renter demand slow, pushing the ramp-up in rent growth—expected in some metros this year—out to 2026.

2. Resident Retention Is the Name of the Game

Operations teams are laser-focused on retaining current renters at lease expiration. Why? Because in uncertain times, households tend to stay put. That inertia works in favor of renewal strategies—especially in markets like Chicago, where pricing power for renewal leases still exists.

A notable performance driver: specialized renewal teams. Operators who have centralized lease renewal and pricing decisions—rather than relying solely on on-site teams—report stronger outcomes. With pricing pressure subdued for new move-ins, renewal lease revenue is a critical piece of the puzzle.

3. Renter Finances: More Than Just Rent-to-Income

Too often, we anchor financial health to rent-to-income ratios. But that lens may be too narrow. A more holistic view reveals growing pressure on households due to transportation, insurance, medical costs, student loan repayments, and surging credit card debt.

That last item—credit card balances—is increasingly being cited as a red flag for emerging financial distress, especially as inflation threatens to reaccelerate. It’s a space we’ll be watching closely.

4. Immigration Policy Impacts Are Showing Up On-Site

Operators in the region are beginning to observe site-level impacts tied to recent immigration policy changes. A few report ICE activity affecting resident populations, while many more are seeing staffing challenges among service vendors. Landscapers, maintenance techs, and painters are in short supply. On the development side, it’s becoming harder to maintain fully staffed construction crews.

5. Tariffs Haven’t Derailed Construction—Yet

I was surprised to hear this, but several developers noted that tariffs on materials haven’t derailed their immediate construction plans. With apartment starts already down sharply from their peak, subcontractors are eager for work—often accepting slimmer margins and absorbing increased material costs to stay active in the pipeline.

There’s no substitute for in-market conversations when it comes to understanding the forces shaping rental housing performance. Many thanks to AMLI, Heitman, JVM Realty, LaSalle Investment Management, and LivCor for the generous exchange of ideas in Chicago. Stay tuned as our From the Field series continues across more cities in the coming months.